The End of the Business Cycle
We have talked about the bottom of the business cycle being an opportune time to start a business, or begin the process of innovation, mainly because the froth of competition has left the field and everyone is also looking for new solutions.
We also noted that some of the greatest business–Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Microsoft, etc.–began in the depths of economic strife. You may have noticed something else.
These companies not only rode the waves of new products and high profits, but, their products ushered in new industries and spearheaded the new economic eras. HP perfected business machines. Sony popularized the transistor. Microsoft revolutionized computing with its software.
My question is, what will the next wave bring?
If Microsoft uncorked the explosion of productivity, what will the next Microsoft do? It may make the Microsoft revolution look tame. The new technologies and devices that researchers are developing are not sector changing, or even industry changing, they are life changing. Maybe even reality changing.
The next changes appear to be the “bend-of-the-knee” type innovations that will pass from incremental to exponential.
Solar power. Fusion power. Mind-Machine interfaces. Nano-technology. Personalized medicine. Rapid prototyping. Smart AI-powered investing for the masses (OK, so I had to plug our business).
This sudden and accelerating progress has been predicted by experts in the Singularity.
We are at a point that it’s hard to imagine that these new technologies, created at the trough of a Schumpeterian trough, will cause nothing short of business tsunami of such magnitude that it may be hard to find a peak.
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is one of my favorite financial books of all time. It's an allegory about a guy who has a terrible job, and how he overcomes challenges to achieve his dreams.
You mention “Smart AI-powered investing for the masses”. Now I don’t see how that can work. If you can identify above average opportunities reliably, the masses will all invest and there goes your above average opportunity.
BTW linked you here:
The Next Big Thing
Thanks for your comments.
First, as far as our business model, I guess I should define “masses.” We feel that self-directed investors and traders miss some of the most powerful investment technologies, usually reserved for institutional investors.
However, we also believe the investment opportunities have just been scratched. We’ll do our best to accomodate as many people as the model can support.
Probably an over-belief, but we think there’s a reason to aim high.
You’re exploration of some of the other ground-breaking technologies was insightful.
I guess when I wrote the post I wasn’t thinking on time-effort scale, just that the next group of innovations, when the arrive, will be game changing.
Matt,
I’m an engineer, moderately well versed in all kinds of technology with special emphasis on electronics and energy.
If I can help you with an engineer’s view (I’m sceptical of every thing) on a particular technology please contact me.
Thanks!
There’s a lot to be said about skepticism.
We’ll do.
Since the iPad has been released, how do you foresee change of events in the future?
Great graphic! An interesting thing to note is that energy end metals are just starting to perk up. XLE and OIH just had nice breakouts today, 4-23-2010. I do agree that metals and energy are late cycle plays. The interesting thing about the 2010 market is that we seem to be moving thru the business cycle at an accelerated pace. It should be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out.
Good to know, Jason. I have noticed that the swings in asset prices is much more accelerated compared to previous downturn-upswing periods of the past. Whether this truly ends the business cycle is a bit of a stretch on my part, but it looks less like wild speculation now.
I think the next big thing will be in energy. God knows we’ll need it if oil starts running out.