George Washington: A Trend Following Investor

November 12th, 2009
Brent and Marilynn @ Flickr

Brent and Marilynn @ Flickr

We know that George Washington was the father of our country. But was he also the father of Trend Following investing?

OK. That may be pushing things a little bit, but if you examine the career–especially the military career–Washington did use some essential techniques of great trend followers, like Rich Dennis.

Trend following is an investment strategy that couples risk minimization with return maximization. It does so through a couple key market insights:

  • Identify opportunities
  • Preserve capital
  • Limit risk
  • Let your profits run.

Let’s see how some of Washington’s campaigns match up with the trend following philosophy.

Washington, like any good trend investor, could spot an opportunity. And that was a pretty handy talent in the American Revolution–because there weren’t a lot of them. Military strategists say that Washington’s cornering of Cornwallis in Yorktown was an example of exploiting an opportunity.

Ammunition, clothes and food were in constant short supply in the early American army. That’s why he appointed a logistics expert, like Nathanael Greene, to maintain those resources. Trend investors take the same stingy approach with capital when they use position sizing.

Preserving capital (or supplies) is one thing, but wasting capital is another. While Washington was good fighter, he was a much better at retreating. Facing stiff odds against the world’s best army, Washington would retreat to fight another day, a prong of the trend investor’s motto, “let your profits ride and stop your losses short.”

When he had identified an opportunity and calculated the risks for success, Washington did let his profits ride. His attack across the Delaware, led to not just one victory (at Trenton), but followed it up with a victory at Princeton.

If you follow trend following, like Washington, you’ll realize it’s not the number of battles you win, but how big the carefully-chosen battles are that profit you the most.

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