This wonderful post on Broader Perspective Blog has some great predictions for 2009. Unlike financial markets, predicting the future of technology is much more certain It’s pretty exciting to look at these predictions and then come back at the end of next year and see how everything turned out.
One popular challenge with Accelerating Technology is that there is a limit at some point. For example, the size of transistors on computer chips is now 39 nm. The naysayers complain, “You can’t get too small, because there is a limit on how small a transistor on the chip can be. In a few years, they will not be able to make them any smaller.”
Although this argument is valid, it overlooks one small detail. There may be a limit to the size of a transistor, but there is no limit to human ingenuity. What has happened before, and what will happen again, is that a new paradigm or method or strategy will be developed that will replace the current technology.
In the past, there were vacuum tubes instead of transistors, and in the future we will have 3D chips or Quantum Computing , or some other technology that we may not even know about now. And, it may just be my own stupid belief, and you have to decide if you believe it or not, but I think anything is possible. What we don’t have now, we will have tomorrow. What we don’t have tomorrow we will have the following day.
All roads lead to the singularity. Enjoy the trip!
There is one small challenge, with the infinite possibility, of the singularity. It promises to give us everything that we want. But only for those in the know. If it will give you anything that you ask, what would you ask for?
Accelerating Technology, Dreams Come True
2009, Accelerating Technology, computers, CPU, human ingenuity, predictions, quantum computing, singularity
is one of my favorite financial books of all time. It's an allegory about a guy who has a terrible job, and how he overcomes challenges to achieve his dreams.
