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Posts Tagged ‘exponential’

Exponential Wealth: The More And More Law

October 14th, 2009
The Singularity Roland@Flickr

The Singularity Roland@Flickr

In our upcoming eBook, “The Wealth Singularity,” we’ll introduce you to a concept called the “More And More” law.

It’s based on Moore’s Law. Moore’s law, at least one variation, states that computing power doubles every two years, while the cost of computing decreases. Proof of Moore’s Law can be seen by comparing the size of laptops and the cell phones with their predecessors, as well as the number and power of applications we find on these devices.

But what we don’t often see, especially in the midst of this economic malaise, is that increasing computing power leads to increasing wealth. If you know how to seize and manage it.
Read more…

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Exponential Growth Versus Existential Risks

January 6th, 2009

Amish speedway

There’s a business cliche that managers are trained to say, usually right before they cut your salary or move your unit into a basement cubicle farm, they say: “Embrace change.”

In our recent election we talked a lot about change and the resulting change will be overwhelmingly positive. Change is coming. Change we can believe in. America is changing. Ch-Ch-Changes.

There is no doubt that we–as in, humanity, in general–are going to face major changes. On George Dvorsky’s Sentient Development blog, you can see some of the answers to a question Edge.org asked: “What game-changing scientific ideas and developments do you expect to live to see?”

The answers, as Mr. Dvorsky points out in his blog, are overwhelmingly in tune with Singularity thinking and are, for the most part, positive. But, for any of you out there who found that “embracing change” meant being pushed to the curb, or swept under the rug, or let out to pasture, you might be skeptical.

And, it’s true, exponential growth and exotic change can bring risks. We talked about this before. For instance, what if someone uses home brew genetic change to create a powerful pathogen. What if the government uses quantum computing to spy on us? Will nanoparticles turn into some type of grey goo?

The question then is not how you must embrace change, but how we can prepare to minimize risks and overcome bad change.

There are people who are way ahead of that curve. Consider Lifeboat.com. You can read their mission statement here. Essentially, Lifeboat recognized that change is, indeed, coming and that some of that change might not necessarily be good. It’s forming a group to take preemptive actions to minimize the risks of bad change. They’re looking into methods to combat viruses and investigate the creation of space colonies, among other threats.

I had this stray thought while writing this… In previous changes between epochs, only islands of people resisted change. The Amish are a good example, but for the most part, people changed or died out. But this change may be different. The Singularity offers considerable change, but also allows people more power through intense customization.

In fact, this technological singularity may be so powerful that humans can pick and choose the types of change they want.

I’ll consider this is later posts.

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Home Brew Genetic Engineering

January 2nd, 2009

The entire computer industry was pretty much gestated in garages around the world. And everyone was pretty happy.

Now, a genetic engineering revolution is taking place in home labs and garage workshops, according to an article in MSNBC.Homebrewed genetic engineering This is an example of how exponential technologies are knocking not on the door to our future, but to the door of our present.

And the jury is still out on whether this is a good thing… or a bad thing.

On the positive side, home brew genetic engineering will open up the massive potential of the innovative nature of individuals. Far from the office politics and bureaucratic nature of the pharma and biotech industries, people will be able to investigate and invent on their own.

On the scary side, some researchers are worried that, just like the computer industry spawned the computer virus, this new power could lead people to invent lead to new diseases. And, they point out, the resulting virus won’t just disable a computer; they could create a catastrophe, like a home brewed plague.

I choose to believe the benefits will out-strip these negative effects. The people who create viruses are minuscule compared to the number of people who use computer technology for good.

And, hopefully, we’ll have people create anti-virus solutions, just like we have anti-computer virus tech.

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The End of the Business Cycle

December 19th, 2008

We have talked about the bottom of the business cycle being an opportune time to start a business, or begin the process of innovation, mainly because the froth of competition has left the field and everyone is also looking for new solutions.

We also noted that some of the greatest business–Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Microsoft, etc.–began in the depths of economic strife. You may have noticed something else.Business Cycle

These companies not only rode the waves of new products and high profits, but, their products ushered in new industries and spearheaded the new economic eras. HP perfected business machines. Sony popularized the transistor. Microsoft revolutionized computing with its software.

My question is, what will the next wave bring?

If Microsoft uncorked the explosion of productivity, what will the next Microsoft do? It may make the Microsoft revolution look tame. The new technologies and devices that researchers are developing are not sector changing, or even industry changing, they are life changing. Maybe even reality changing.

The next changes appear to be the “bend-of-the-knee” type innovations that will pass from incremental to exponential.

Solar power. Fusion power. Mind-Machine interfaces. Nano-technology. Personalized medicine. Rapid prototyping. Smart AI-powered investing for the masses (OK, so I had to plug our business).

This sudden and accelerating progress has been predicted by experts in the Singularity.

We are at a point that it’s hard to imagine that these new technologies, created at the trough of a Schumpeterian trough, will cause nothing short of business tsunami of such magnitude that it may be hard to find a peak.

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Weird Future: The Top Ten Weird Science Trends

December 2nd, 2008

Weird Science
You think trying to create an advanced technology to create investing strategies that can create high-return, low-risk trades is crazy, right?

Weird?

Impossible?

You need to sit back and check out futurist Dr. James Canton’s top ten weird science trends from his book The Extreme Future.

These trends include:

  1. Artificial life spawns new electronic beings. (How about an artificial financial analyst?)
  2. Teleportation. (Beam me up.)
  3. Nano-biology
  4. Internet self-awareness
  5. Quantum computing
  6. Mirror worlds and an infinite number of universes
  7. Outer space travel becomes routine
  8. Immersive realities
  9. Always-on mobility
  10. Widespread robot useage

One of the keys to merge with this “new future,” Canton says is to begin to “unthink.” You will need to relearn how you think when you approach the use of these weird technologies. Another consciousness shift will be how your current thought processes will be augmented by technological helpers.

As he says:

In the next evolution of business, where every business is an e-business, software agents and avatars will play an important role. Agents will help us navigate commerce, find information, negotiate deals and even keep us company.

Maybe these technological agents will help you trade stocks and manage to secure your financial freedom?

 

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Nobody Said The Singularity Would Be Easy

November 22nd, 2008

There Be Dragons

The exponential gains in technology are indisputable, but the journey has its bumps and dips.

Financially, we’re undergoing some insane, never-seen-or-felt-before dips and lifts in the stock market. The effects of which are being felt globally. What started out as high house prices in the west and southwest have reverberated across the country, over Europe and into Asia.

Gas prices soared. Then they crashed.

In movements that took only months, various stock markets have returned to levels they haven’t seen since 1997, discounting all measures of productivity gains and increased computing power.

The critics of the Singularity say that limits have been reached. Technology can only help so much. And, prosperity will now level off, or decrease.

I believe that people are drawing the wrong conclusion from the right evidence. Advanced technology does not decrease volatility; nor, does it decrease human emotions, like euphoria… or panic. The technology that’s responsible for some amazing gains in computing power, productivity increase, and global interaction can be just as easily be used to spread panic in the financial system around the world.

From epoch to epoch, uncertainty and panic tend to grow. New worlds and new dimensions are not easy births.

As counterintuitive as it may seem, could the extreme volatility in real estate markets in the United States, the wage decreases in Russia, the closed factories in China, and empty oil fields in the Middle East, be signs that the world is on track for the Singularity?

 

 

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Money-Squared. The Power of Exponential Returns

November 17th, 2008

The power of exponential investing is pretty amazing. It’s the ability to double or triple your money.

Exponential returns can be realized with a little thought experiment. You’ve probably heard of it before.

The adviser asks for a small return for his services to his emperor. He merely asks for a grain of rice on the square of a chess board. And with each day’s service, he asks to have that pay doubled.Exponential

Doesn’t sound like much, says the emperor. But by day twenty he owes his vizer millions of grains of rice. And, by the end of the a month, the number is bankrupting.

Here’s a much more thorough explanation from the Cato Institute website:

The Emperor of China was so excited about the game of chess that he offered the inventor one wish. The inventor replied that he wanted one grain of rice on the first square of the chess board, two grains on the second square, four on the third and so on through the 64th square. The unwitting emperor immediately agrees to the seemingly modest request. But two to the 64th power is 18 million trillion grains of rice–more than enough to cover the entire surface of the earth.

Wow. I’d want a lot of Sesame Chicken to go with all that rice.

Exponential gains are a little more dramatic than compound returns–which are typically just a fraction of the initial amount that is re-invested over and over. Exponential is a multiplier… of two times, three times, or more.

Possibility is one thing.

But how realistic is it?

Investors report exponential gains fairly regularly. I read of one investor who made 866 percent gain. Then there’s Warren Buffet who did quiet well, thank you very much, with just 30 percent or so returns. (He used the other multiplier–time—and consistent gains to create his wealth.)

There are some examples of exponential growth right now. Technology is one. And, we could have another thought experiment: if the inventor created a technology that could double rice production every day, wouldn’t that be the same effect as shaking down the emperor of China?

In other words, as technology increases exponentially, wealth will go with it, as long as minds can conceive of the journey.

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After Energy Dependence… I’ll Tell You What

July 29th, 2008

Early to Rise is a great resource for entrepreneurs with articles that serve as inspiration to innovators, inventors, and investors. A recent issue was doubly interesting for me (Matt) because an article referenced Ray Kurzweil.Sun

The article, After Energy Dependence, Then What?, speculated on how the United State will gain energy independence. Kurzweil believes that solar energy can–and will–handle 100 percent of America’s energy needs in 20 years.

The sun beams down trillions of watts of energy in a day. The article states the sun provides 10,000 times more energy than we need. (Although, I think it provides 10,000 times more energy in a day than mankind uses in a year… but, I have to find a reference for that fact.)

So, what will happen when we can produce energy cheaply, efficiently, and cleanly? My bet is that we’ll take an exponential bump on the way to the Singularity and that our creative and innovative juices will lose one more weight that has kept us from following our dreams. Power won’t be a problem.

As innovators and inventors follow their passions, wealth will follow and should increase on the same exponential scale. Energy costs will no longer be a burden to small and large companies. Transportation costs may be miniscule.

We also believe autotrading systems, like our Online Investing AI, will be able to ride this exponential wave to high returns and low risks.

After Energy Dependence? Le Wealth Deluge?

 

Accelerating Technology, Dreams Come True, Investing, Money, Online Investing AI, US Economy , , ,