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Posts Tagged ‘news’

Is Halliburton a Good Buy?

June 3rd, 2010

As I have mentioned in previous posts about BP and Transocean, this huge economic disaster could also be an investment opportunity. The prices of BP, Transocean and Halliburton (HAL) have gone down significantly since the accident. Does this make Halliburton a good buy?

Since the high in April Halliburton has gone from $35 to $21 per share, and is currently about 33% off its pre-disaster price. This means that the stock has come down quite a bit. But is it a good buy likely to go up or is it going to continue to fall?

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Investing, Money, Success, US Economy , , , , , , , ,

Is the Economy in Trouble? Or just the Sheep?

July 3rd, 2009

Everyone seems to running around complaining about the economy and unemployment and lamenting the fall in the stock or housing markets. Let’s stop running for a second and ask an important question.

How did we get into this situation?

dow-jones-going-down

The markets did not suddenly decide to go down by themselves. They are simply going down after going up for a long, long time. Markets go up and markets go down. It’s part of the grand scheme of things.

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Investing, Money, Success, US Economy , , , , , ,

Automated Trading and Human Psychology

June 26th, 2009

We have seen massive losses in the markets over the last 6 months, and then a big runup over the last few months. People assume that the reason the markets have been going up is that the economy is improving, and the housing crisis is over.

It turns out that economic performance does not directly affect the movement of markets. How is this possible? Because economic performance does not buy and sell stocks. Human beings (and now computers) do. Therefore, market movements are a reflection of human psychology and have no direct relation to economics.

How can a computer possibly make money if the markets move with changes in human psychology?

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Automated Trading, Investing , , , , , , ,

High Gas Prices and the Media

July 7th, 2008

The recent run up in gas prices has created a bonanza for the media. The reason for this is that newspapers, online news outlets, and nightly news programming is 99% bad news. There is even a saying, “No news is good news.” I guess people say that because nearly all news distributed through the media is bad.

If I look at the top 3 news items on the front page of Yahoo right now, I see 3 pieces of bad news. The topics are:

  • A hostage and terrorism
  • Iran’s nuclear program and potential conflict
  • The price of oil and supply disruption

Consider this headline:

Oil drops sharply as worries about supply disruptions ease

In fact, they have even taken good news and turned it into bad news! The story is that the price of oil has gone down, but the headline focuses on what the problemcould be: supply disruptions. By focusing on potential future problems, this headline generates fear in the mind of the reader.

Why is the media always about bad news? Because bad news sells. If you walk by a newspaper stand and the headline says, “Nice weather today and everything is fine,” then you will probably keep walking. But it says, “Thousands at risk from flash floods and firestorms!” Now, they have given you a reason to buy the newspaper. We want to know what will happen to all those unfortunate people.

The challenge with negative media is that it has a powerful effect on its audience. Most people are totally unaware, but everything that we hear and see is forever recorded inside of our unconscious mind, and affects us for a long time. When we take in negative information it becomes a part of us and makes us more negative.

It turns out that the recent rise in gas prices is not bad news at all. It is totally natural. America has had the lowest prices in gas for decades, and the American public was totally unaware. In most other countries, gas cost at least twice as much as it did in the U.S. Even in developing countries, where the average income is far less than in America, gas cost twice as much. Americans have enjoyed the benefits of incredibly cheap gas for a long, long time, and didn’t even know it!

Its much easier to sit down on the sofa and watch the 6 o’clock news than it is to go to another country, rent a car, and see what it is like to drive around in another country. Most Americans have not even found out how much gas costs in other countries, let alone actually going to another country and seeing for themselves.

All this to say that the media has used gas prices to sell newspapers and increase viewership. But they have done nothing to help Americans understand that they have had a free ride for a long, long time.

Business Strategy , , , ,