When You See The Black Swan, Ride It
If you’re not sure what the black swan is, check out the book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Essentially (and I’m vastly over-simplifying), Taleb’s point is that your brain is fooled by randomness and that you must be able to recognize the large-scale events that can cause massive and chaotic change in the market.
Taleb refers to these events as “black swans,” based on the notion that everyone believed that only black swans existed, when, lo and behold a species of black swans was discovered it.
To simplify this even more: S**t happens.
The question for me, since I’m interested in how technology can predict asset movements, is: how can we predict a black swan.
I don’t think you need to. The problem isn’t that there is an agnosticism about black swans; the problem is when investors cling to white swans and aren’t nimble enough to jump on the long neck of the black swan.
I believe that technology is suitable adapted–or could be adapted–to not only recognize a black swan moment, but also move assets and change positions into its flight path.
Accelerating Technology, Business Strategy, Great Books, Investing, Money, Online Investing AI
is one of my favorite financial books of all time. It's an allegory about a guy who has a terrible job, and how he overcomes challenges to achieve his dreams.
